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1. Event Identification In the HER project, 20 hours ago, a Smart Trader bought $338.23 from one smart money: • Trading Volume: $4.92M • Market Cap: $342.5K • Decline: -42.18% Main Wallets: • solsmart3: Current balance $1.82K, 19 buys and 4 sells in 24 hours, ROI -18.92%, completed a buy 3 hours ago. • solsmart74: Current balance <$0.01, 4 buys and 5 sells in 24 hours, ROI +81.01%, completed liquidation 6 hours ago. • solsmart84: Current balance $0, 1 buy and 1 sell in 24 hours, ROI -63.15%, completed liquidation 11 hours ago. --- 2. Motivation Analysis 1. Aggressive Positioning: solsmart3's 19 buys and 4 sells indicate a strong focus on short-term fluctuations in the HER project, but it is currently at a loss. 2. Successful Arbitrage Liquidation: solsmart74’s multiple buys and sells generated +81.01%, reflecting a successful capture of market fluctuations and quick exit. 3. Risk Testing Failure: solsmart84's single buy and sell failed to yield profit, leading to a quick exit to avoid larger losses. --- 3. Structural Perspective • Aggressive Positioning and High-Frequency Trading: solsmart3's numerous buys and few sells show strong confidence in HER's short-term fluctuations. • Successful Arbitrage Strategy: solsmart74 successfully captured market volatility and quickly exited, demonstrating efficient short-term arbitrage execution. • Liquidation After Risk Testing: solsmart84's single attempt to profit failed, indicating an unfavorable market for short-term capital. --- 4. Key Variables • Strong Liquidity: HER's trading volume of $4.92M indicates significant short-term market activity. • Position Continuity: If solsmart3 aggressively increases its position, the market will face more volatility. • Selling Pressure After Efficient Arbitrage: solsmart74's successful exit may trigger more short-term capital withdrawals. --- 5. Trend Forecast 1. Short-term Volatility Will Continue: solsmart3’s high-frequency buying and solsmart74’s arbitrage exit will lead to market fluctuations. 2. Mid-term Rebound Relies on New Capital: Without new long-term funds entering, solsmart3's aggressive positioning will face greater selling pressure. 3. Arbitrage Model Will Trigger Imitation: solsmart74's successful exit may result in more short-term funds making similar moves. --- LUMEN Structure Summary The short-term fluctuations of the HER project have attracted aggressive positioning and short-term arbitrage funds. solsmart3’s high-frequency buying shows strong confidence in market volatility, while solsmart74’s precise arbitrage exit represents quick capture of high short-term volatility. From the LUMEN structure analysis, the market is currently dominated by short-term arbitrage. Without long-term funds stabilizing prices, subsequent selling pressure may become more apparent. Future trends will depend on whether new capital can intervene; otherwise, market volatility will continue to expand.