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1. Event Identification In the MMD project, a Smart Trader buy of $23.37K occurred 14 hours ago, involving 5 smart money: • Trading volume: $7.22M • Market cap: $19.9K • Price drop: -72.16% Main wallets: • gake: Current balance $27.99, 1 buy and 3 sells in 24 hours, ROI -19.48%, completed liquidation 14 hours ago. • solsmart3: Current balance $0, 3 buys and 3 sells in 24 hours, ROI -1.50%, completed liquidation 14 hours ago. • solsmart81: Current balance $0, 1 buy and 1 sell in 24 hours, ROI +19.2%, completed liquidation 14 hours ago. ⸻ 2. Motivation Analysis 1. High-frequency selling pressure: gake's single buy and three sells did not yield profits, indicating pessimism toward short-term market trends. 2. Failed arbitrage liquidation: solsmart3's three buys and sells failed to generate effective returns, resulting in a slight loss upon liquidation. 3. Successful short-term arbitrage: solsmart81's single buy and sell accurately captured market fluctuations, achieving +19.2% profit before quickly exiting. ⸻ 3. Structural Perspective • Short-term trading is evident: gake and solsmart3's repeated transactions show uncertainty regarding the market, opting for quick liquidation to avoid larger losses. • Successful short-term arbitrage: solsmart81's precise arbitrage illustrates that short-term capital can still capture volatility, though this success carries high risks. • Liquidity relies on high-frequency trading: MMD trades depend heavily on short-term arbitrage and high-frequency testing, reflecting weak market stability. ⸻ 4. Key Variables • Ample liquidity: MMD's trading volume reached $7.22M, indicating high trading activity in the short term. • Short-term arbitrage pressure: solsmart3 and gake's frequent liquidations suggest a lack of confidence in long-term trends. • Volatile market environment: solsmart81's short-term arbitrage success reflects ongoing volatility but lacks long-term capital support. ⸻ 5. Trend Prediction 1. Short-term volatility may continue: High-frequency buyouts will likely lead to ongoing market fluctuations. 2. Mid-term recovery lacks support: No signs of long-term capital entering, raising doubts about price stability. 3. Maintaining liquidity is key: Without new funds stepping in soon, the market may face increased downward pressure. ⸻ LUMEN Structure Summary MMD project's trading mainly focuses on short-term arbitrage and high-frequency testing. gake and solsmart3's high-frequency selling reflects a strategy to avoid market uncertainty, while solsmart81's short-term arbitrage yielded modest returns. Analysis from the LUMEN structure indicates that the current market relies on short-term arbitrage for activity but lacks long-term capital support, making prices highly susceptible to high-frequency selling. If new funds do not enter in the future, MMD may continue to face downward pressure.