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1. Event Identification In the MONA project, 16 hours ago, a Smart Trader bought $33.43K, coming from 6 smart money sources: - Trading Volume: $4.99M - Market Cap: $146.15K - Price Increase: +47.08% Main Wallets: - solsmart3: Current Balance $0, 3 buys and 2 sells in the last 24 hours, ROI -18.34%, completely liquidated 3 hours ago. - solsmart81: Current Balance $0, 1 buy and 1 sell in the last 24 hours, ROI -3.04%, completely liquidated 15 hours ago. - gake: Current Balance $1.25K, 3 buys and 4 sells in the last 24 hours, ROI -36.49%, completely liquidated 15 hours ago. --- 2. Motivation Analysis 1. Short-term Arbitrage Failure: solsmart3’s high-frequency trading failed to generate profits, leading to rapid liquidation to avoid greater risks. 2. Tentative Positioning: solsmart81’s single buy and sell indicate uncertainty about market trends, resulting in no significant gains. 3. High Selling Pressure: gake’s multiple trades resulted in a -36.49% loss, reflecting a bearish outlook on the market and a quick exit. --- 3. Structural Insight - Focus on Short-term Speculation: Frequent buying and liquidations by solsmart3 and gake show clear sensitivity to MONA’s price fluctuations, but no positive returns resulted. - Liquidation After Arbitrage Failure: All major wallets failed to achieve significant returns, indicating a rapid retreat following short-term speculative failure. - Liquidity Dependent on High-frequency Trading: The project relies on quick inflows and outflows of short-term funds, lacking long-term holders to support prices. --- 4. Key Variables - Ample Liquidity: MONA’s trading volume at $4.99M indicates high market activity, but significant volatility exists. - Short-term Arbitrage Exit: solsmart3 and gake's high-frequency operations did not yield profits, opting for rapid liquidation, reflecting low market confidence. - Lack of Long-term Capital: Major funds exited within a short timeframe, indicating market uncertainty about the future. --- 5. Trend Prediction 1. Short-term Volatility May Continue: High-frequency arbitrage and short-selling pressure could lead to ongoing market fluctuations. 2. Lack of Support for Mid-term Rebound: Currently, no long-term capital enters, which may hinder the sustainability of price rebounds. 3. Liquidity Will Determine Future Directions: If no new long-term funds enter, the market will remain influenced by short-term speculation. --- LUMEN Structure Summary The MONA project has attracted concentrated inflows and outflows of high-frequency arbitrage funds in the short term, but the main wallets solsmart3, solsmart81, and gake failed to achieve positive returns and rapidly liquidated to avoid risks, indicating a lack of market confidence in short-term increases. From the LUMEN structural analysis, the current rise appears to be the result of short-term speculation; without long-term funding entering, prices are unlikely to stabilize and may continue to face downward pressure.